--- name: decision-memos description: | Generate structured decision memos for capital allocation actions. This skill creates framework-driven documents that apply investor lenses to portfolio decisions. Memos structure thinking without making recommendations. All decisions require human judgment and manual execution. System never auto-executes trades. allowed_tools: - Makefile:decide - Bash:.\/bin\/investos decide --isin --action - Bash:ls decisions\/*.md - Bash:cat decisions\/.md inputs: - isin: Security ISIN (required for add\/trim\/exit, optional for new\/hold) - action: Decision type (new\/add\/trim\/exit\/hold, default: hold) - name: Security name for new positions - notes: User context or reasoning - lens: Specific investor framework (marks\/munger\/klarman\/all) outputs: - decision_memo: Structured markdown file with analysis framework - portfolio_context: Current position size, concentration impact - lens_prompts: Questions from investor frameworks artifacts: - decisions\/YYYY-MM-DD__.md: Decision memo template - logs\/runs\/YYYY-MM-DD\/HHMMSS_decide.json: Run log failure_modes: - missing_isin: Required ISIN not provided for action that needs it - position_not_found: ISIN not in current portfolio (for add\/trim\/exit) - no_snapshot: No portfolio snapshot to extract context from examples: - "Should I add to my Berkshire position?" - "Create decision memo for new position in Apple" - "Help me think through selling Microsoft" --- # SKILL: decision-memos ## WHEN TO USE THIS SKILL Use this skill when: - User asks "should I buy\/sell\/hold?" - User mentions considering a portfolio action - User wants to think through a decision - User asks for decision framework or structure - User mentions specific security and action (buy, add, trim, exit) Do NOT use this skill when: - User wants current portfolio state (use portfolio-qa) - User wants valuation (use portfolio-valuation) - User wants to execute trade (not supported - human only) - User just wants information about a security ## PRECONDITIONS **Required:** - Portfolio snapshot exists (for context) - Repository validated (run `make doctor` if uncertain) **Recommended:** - Portfolio summary recent (run `make summarize`) - Explanation available (if recent changes) **Actions Explained:** **new:** Initiating new position (ISIN optional, name helpful) **add:** Adding to existing position (ISIN required) **trim:** Reducing existing position (ISIN required) **exit:** Closing existing position (ISIN required) **hold:** Reviewing current position (ISIN optional) ## STEP-BY-STEP PROCEDURE ### Step 1: Identify Decision Parameters **Ask user to clarify:** - What security? (get ISIN if possible) - What action? (new\/add\/trim\/exit\/hold) - Any context? (why considering this?) **Example clarification:** ``` User: "Should I buy more Apple?" Agent: "I'll create a decision memo for adding to Apple (US0378331005). Do you have specific context or concerns to note?" ``` ### Step 2: Run Decision Memo Generator **Using Makefile (PREFERRED):** ```bash make decide ISIN= ACTION= ``` **Using CLI directly:** ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --isin --action ``` **Examples:** **Review existing holding:** ```bash make decide ISIN=US0378331005 ACTION=hold .\/bin\/investos decide --isin US0378331005 ``` **Consider adding to position:** ```bash make decide ISIN=US0378331005 ACTION=add .\/bin\/investos decide --isin US0378331005 --action add ``` **Consider new position:** ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --action new --name "Costco Wholesale" --isin US22160K1051 ``` **Consider trimming:** ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --isin IE00B4L5Y983 --action trim \ --notes "Position grew to 20% via appreciation" ``` **Consider exiting:** ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --isin US6541061031 --action exit \ --notes "Thesis broken - management change" ``` **Use specific lens:** ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --isin US0846707026 --lens klarman ``` ### Step 3: Read Output **Expected console output:** ``` Creating decision memo... Action: hold ISIN: US0378331005 Lenses: marks, munger, klarman Snapshot: latest.json ✓ Decision memo created! Output: decisions\/2026-01-29_US0378331005_hold.md Next steps: 1. Edit decisions\/2026-01-29_US0378331005_hold.md 2. Fill in the [TODO] sections with your analysis 3. Make a decision: Proceed \/ Delay \/ Reject 4. If proceeding, execute manually (system never auto-executes) ``` ### Step 4: Guide User Through Memo **Explain memo structure:** ``` The memo has 7 sections: 1. Decision Framing - What's being considered? (facts) 2. Portfolio Context - Current weight, concentration 3. Investor Lens Review - Marks\/Munger\/Klarman questions 4. Disconfirming Evidence - What would make this wrong? 5. Alternatives Considered - Do nothing, delay, etc. 6. Decision Status - Proceed\/Delay\/Reject checkboxes 7. Follow-ups - What to monitor, triggers to revisit Fill in the [TODO] sections with your thinking. ``` ### Step 5: Review Memo Location ```bash ls -lh decisions\/2026-01-29__.md ``` **Memo is ready for user to edit and complete.** ## VERIFICATION & SUCCESS CRITERIA Decision memo succeeded if: 1. **Command exits with status 0** 2. **Memo file created** in decisions\/ 3. **All mandatory sections present** 4. **Portfolio context populated** (if position exists) 5. **Lens sections included** 6. **User notified** of next steps ## FAILURE HANDLING & RECOVERY ### Missing ISIN for Action Requiring It **Symptom:** "Error: For 'add' action, must provide --isin" **Recovery:** 1. Explain which actions need ISIN: - add, trim, exit require ISIN - new and hold optional 2. Ask user for ISIN 3. Suggest: "Find ISIN in portfolio snapshot or online" **Do NOT:** - Guess ISIN - Look up ISIN without asking - Proceed without required info ### Position Not Found (for add\/trim\/exit) **Symptom:** "Warning: Position not found in current portfolio" **Recovery:** 1. Memo still created (with warning noted) 2. Inform user: "This security isn't in your current portfolio" 3. For 'add': suggest 'new' action instead 4. For 'trim'\/'exit': verify ISIN correct **Do NOT:** - Block memo creation - Assume user is wrong - Modify action automatically ### No Snapshot Available **Symptom:** "✗ No portfolio snapshots found" **Recovery:** 1. User needs to ingest data first 2. Suggest: `make ingest PDF=` 3. Explain: "Decision memos need portfolio context" **Do NOT:** - Create memo without context - Use old snapshot without asking - Invent portfolio state ### Unclear User Intent **Symptom:** User says "should I buy?" without specifics **Recovery:** 1. Ask clarifying questions: - "Which security?" - "New position or adding to existing?" - "What's driving this consideration?" 2. Offer to create general review memo: ```bash .\/bin\/investos decide --action hold ``` **Do NOT:** - Assume specific security - Guess user's motivation - Make recommendation ## DECISION MEMO STRUCTURE Every memo includes these mandatory sections: ### 1. Decision Framing (Facts Only) **What it contains:** - Clear statement of decision being considered - What changed (or didn't) - What is known vs. unknown - User context notes (if provided) **Example:** ```markdown **Decision:** Consider adding to existing position in Apple Inc. **Current Weight:** 15.2% **Recent Portfolio Change:** +21.6% since last snapshot **Known:** - Portfolio value: 193,666.76 EUR - Current position: 29,450.00 EUR (15.2%) **Unknown:** - Current market conditions - Future price movements - Business fundamentals (use valuation separately) ``` ### 2. Portfolio Context **What it contains:** - Current weight percentage - Market value and quantity - Concentration flags (other positions >10%) - Recent portfolio drivers - Correlation notes (manual analysis required) ### 3. Investor Lens Review **What it contains:** - Howard Marks questions (risk, cycles, what's priced in) - Charlie Munger questions (understanding, incentives, moats) - Seth Klarman questions (margin of safety, catalysts, liquidity) - [TODO] markers for user to fill ### 4. Disconfirming Evidence **What it contains:** - What would make this decision wrong? - What evidence would change mind? - [TODO] markers for specific conditions ### 5. Alternatives Considered **What it contains:** - Do nothing (explicit evaluation) - Reduce exposure elsewhere - Delay decision - Other options - [TODO] markers for analysis ### 6. Decision Status **What it contains:** - Checkboxes: ☐ Proceed \/ ☐ Delay \/ ☐ Reject - Rationale field (plain language) - [TODO] marker for decision ### 7. Follow-ups & Triggers **What it contains:** - What should I monitor? - What would force revisit? - [TODO] markers for specifics ## LENS-SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ### Howard Marks Lens **Focus:** Risk, cycles, second-level thinking **Questions:** - Where could permanent capital loss occur? - What assumptions must be true? - What's priced in? What does consensus believe? - Where are we in cycle? - How does this affect concentration? ### Charlie Munger Lens **Focus:** Understanding, incentives, avoiding stupidity **Questions:** - Can I explain this business simply? - Do I know how it makes money? - Can I predict its state in 10 years? - Where could I be fooling myself? - What are management incentives? - Is this simple or complex? ### Seth Klarman Lens **Focus:** Margin of safety, value discipline, capital preservation **Questions:** - What protects me if I'm wrong? - What's the downside case? - What's my margin of safety? - Am I investing or speculating? - What's the catalyst? - How liquid is this? ## NOTES FOR AGENT REASONING **Design Intent:** Decision memos are **thinking tools**, not recommendation engines. They structure judgment without making decisions. **Human-in-the-Loop Always:** - System creates framework - Human fills analysis - Human makes decision - Human executes (if proceeding) - System NEVER auto-executes **No Recommendations:** Memo never says: - "You should buy" - "This is undervalued" - "Sell this position" - "Good opportunity" Memo asks: - "What are the risks?" - "Do you understand this?" - "What could go wrong?" - "What are alternatives?" **Facts vs. Judgment:** **Facts (populated automatically):** - Current position size - Portfolio concentration - Recent changes - Holdings count **Judgment (user must fill):** - Risk assessment - Understanding level - Margin of safety - Decision rationale **Template Nature:** Memo is 80% template, 20% facts: - Structure provided (sections, questions) - Portfolio context auto-filled - Analysis is [TODO] for user - This is intentional - forces thinking **Deterministic:** Same portfolio + same ISIN + same action = same memo structure (excluding timestamps). **What Gets Written:** - **decisions\/YYYY-MM-DD__.md:** Decision memo - **logs\/runs\/:** Structured run log **File Naming:** ``` 2026-01-29_US0378331005_add.md (adding to Apple) 2026-01-29_US0846707026_hold.md (reviewing Berkshire) 2026-01-29_new_position_new.md (considering new position) ``` **Composition with Other Skills:** Typical decision workflow: ``` 1. make summarize (understand current state) 2. make ask Q="Where is concentration?" (identify considerations) 3. make decide ISIN= ACTION= (create memo) 4. [User fills memo manually] 5. [User decides: Proceed\/Delay\/Reject] 6. [User executes manually if Proceed] 7. make ingest PDF= (after execution) ``` **When to Create Memos:** **Required:** - Before initiating new position - Before significant changes (>5% portfolio) - Reviewing concentrated positions (>10%) **Recommended:** - Quarterly portfolio review - After significant market moves - When thesis might have changed - Periodic "hold" confirmation **Not required:** - Routine rebalancing (mechanical) - Tax loss harvesting (procedural) - Tiny positions (<1% portfolio) **Explicit Inaction:** "Hold" and "Delay" are valid outcomes: - Hold: Maintaining position is deliberate - Delay: Waiting for more information - Both require rationale - "Do nothing" is not lazy - it's a choice **Conservative Approach:** - Never push user toward action - "Delay" and "Reject" are good outcomes - Missing data → state explicitly - Uncertainty → encourage caution - User has final say always