--- name: electoral-analysis description: Election forecasting, campaign analysis, coalition prediction, voter behavior modeling license: Apache-2.0 --- # Electoral Analysis Skill ## Purpose Election forecasting and voter behavior analysis for Riksdagsmonitor's political intelligence platform. ## Core Capabilities ### 1. Election Forecasting - Historical trend analysis (1970-present) - Polling aggregation and weighting - Swing calculations and projections - Confidence intervals and uncertainty modeling ### 2. Campaign Analysis - Media visibility tracking - Issue positioning analysis - Coalition signaling detection - Electoral strategy assessment ### 3. Coalition Prediction - Seat projection modeling - Coalition viability assessment - Policy alignment analysis - Historical pattern recognition ### 4. Voter Behavior Modeling - Demographic voting patterns - Regional variations - Issue salience impact - Turnout forecasting ## Swedish Electoral Context ### Key Metrics - **Turnout**: Typically 85-90% (very high) - **Volatility**: Moderate (10-15% vote swing) - **Fragmentation**: 8 parties in parliament - **Threshold Effects**: 4% creates uncertainty for L, KD ### Historical Data (Elections 1970-2024) - 14 parliamentary elections - Party performance trends - Coalition formation patterns - Electoral system changes ## Visualization for Riksdagsmonitor ### HTML\/CSS Dashboard Elements ```html

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S<\/span> 107<\/span> ±5<\/span> <\/div> <\/div> <\/section> ``` ## ISMS Compliance ### ISO 27001:2022 - A.5.10: Objective forecasting methods - A.8.3: Electoral data access control ## References - Valmyndigheten: https:\/\/www.val.se\/ - Historical Data: CIA election datasets - Forecasting Methods: Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight